NFTRH is a 100% Independent Research and Strategy Based Market Service, Effectively Managing All Market Conditions and a Multitude of Sectors
Top-Down, the Only Way to Go
NFTRH is a 'top-down' macro service. In other words, instead of trying to pick stocks with a 'bottom up' view hoping that the larger macro is supportive at any tiven time, we must nail the macro picture and then go top-down from that view in order to pick the right stocks in the right sectors. To me, it's the only logical way to manage markets. But then, I am biased. ;-)
The US dollar has been turning bearish on its daily chart since the spring and with the July plunge below support it was time to seriously manage the prospect of a macro rotation from current leadership in the 'Goldilocks' area of big Tech (which our top-down work had previously advised us to be relatively bullish on back in January) to perhaps a late stage (for the broad global rally) rotation into items that would benefit from a weak USD. These include commodity and resources producers and also the regional markets in which they reside.
I have sold a majority of the Goldilocks stuff I'd held and have been rotating into the area of commodities/resources (Energy, Uranium, Industrial Metals, Precious Metals, etc.) for a trade. Our bigger picture work says that it is only a trade insofar as the US dollar remains under pressure. Since USD has has re-taken the breakdown point we need to be sure the breakdown was not a bear trap. Hence, I still hold a lot of cash, paying a nice monthly income (which sure makes holding cash easy).
This work from NFTRH 768 shows USD from daily, weekly and monthly viewpoints. It's a roadmap of sorts to the prospective anti-USD rallies currently in play. To be clear, the daily chart is permissive of a continued near-term asset market rally (for example, CRB index target: 305, Emerging Markets are breaking upward from constructive chart patterns, etc.) but the weekly and especially monthly charts of USD will eventually put a stop to what may be the broad 2023 rally's final rotation.
Meanwhile, NFTRH will continue to reliably manage the rotating macro picture every week to keep subscribers on the right side of things, per the big macro view, top-down. While USD is far from the only consideration on the macro today, it is an important one.
The Anti-Market
Here is how USD ended the week. The lower bound of the clear initial resistance zone was taken out and the upper bound briefly got poked and then held as resistance. As it stands now, USD is still ‘bounce on’ within its bearish daily chart structure.
As long as the daily chart’s bounce is on we must respect the bullish possibilities (like the recent USD decline having been a bear trap) because the larger picture is a bull market. Indeed, the weekly chart more clearly asks us to consider whether that was a bear trap (false breakdown). USD is back above an important longer-term support marker. Remember how gold similarly plunged through support and bear trapped a reversal upward in Q4, 2022? Remember?
While we are at it, let’s again review the big picture monthly chart. Anyone calling this anything other than a fully intact bull market from 2008 is looking through a biased, ‘de-dollarized’ lens.
“Of the many many financial subscriptions I have , it is yours that I value the most. It is yours that I look forward to the most. You are providing a service that I totally appreciate.” –Betty C-M 7.17.23
For consistent, high quality analysis (a weekly report and in-week market and technical 'trade setup' updates) that keeps subscribers on the right side of all major markets, consider an affordable premium subscription to NFTRH. A subscription to NFTRH costs less per day than your cup of coffee at Dunkin' Donuts!
NFTRH is the most serious and comprehensive macro market management service out there. Period. I do not believe in going on auto pilot with any given orthodoxy. We use technical, macro-fundamental and sentiment tools to keep clients on the right side of markets at all times. Long-term subscribers realize that staying on the right side of markets over the shifting cycles takes work and dedication. Let me do much of that work for you!
NFTRH.com does not recommend that any trading or investment positions be taken based on views expressed in this eLetter. If you speculate or invest it is suggested that you consult a financial adviser qualified in your area of interest. See full Terms of Service (ToS) above.
Comments
Post a Comment