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As gold blows through our long-standing target of 3000+, an eventual blowoff could be in play. For two examples, think about Nasdaq in March, 2000 or silver in April, 2011. But I believe what is happening now is more than that. At some point the upside fireworks will blow out, but with counter-cyclical negativity and other fears gripping the macro, who can say where that point will be?
The main theme of the excerpt from NFTRH 856 (below) is that this is a "launch" into a new macro that symbolically at least, began with the 2022 break of a decades-long downtrend in long-term Treasury bond yields. Counterintuitively, that downtrend and its disinflationary bond market signaling allowed, gave LICENSE to, all manner of inflationary policymaking by the Fed and US government. Today, the savagely broken downtrend and its inflationary signaling impairs inflationary policymakers and the "business as usual" bullshit of the 2001-2022 macro, in my strong opinion (based on my macro tools and indications).
A New Macro For Gold and Gold Stocks
Here is gold’s monthly chart. At target, overbought and bullish in a way that an asset that bides its time through so many years of speculative bubble-making would do, when said bubble-making starts to come unwound. In other words, it’s had a lot of pent up energy as it just sat there like a heavy lump of value while speculative frenzies from Bitcoin to AI popped off like bottle rockets.
Our view has been of a new macro. A macro that will not work the way the previous one (roughly 2004-2024, with 2013-2024 being the most intense of the bubble years by policymakers) did. So why not a new status for gold as a reflection of that failing macro?
Regardless of the overbought situation, I view this big upside surge to target (and to a notable round number, 3000) as a launch into this new macro, regardless of any interim corrective reactions to come.
A subscriber sent an email referencing the Macrocosm’s largest planet, Jupiter, along with this article.
While I am not overly on board with some of what is written in the article, I am on board with the “economic uncertainty” input for gold. Jupiter (“Economic deceleration & waning confidence) is the largest planet for a reason. Where once I had to use this pretty picture to debunk the reasons that perma-bugs put forth to keep their herds bullish, in the new macro it serves a much preferred purpose of showing WHY we should be bullish. Oh, and Saturn is really kicking into gear too.
I am a visual learner. I need pictures because my mind wanders when trying to absorb too many words, and too much data. While it is probably a disorienting and/or ugly macro for most people, it is a thing of beauty to me, because I have awaited its coming. Awaited its clearing of the chicanery in play so strongly over the Greenspan > Bernanke > Yellen > Powell continuum of policy gerrymandering (not to mention routine fiscal abuse from both sides of the aisle).
As for Saturn, gold is now outperforming virtually all cyclical markets. The daily chart picture shows only Gold/Copper having difficulty lately. I think copper may have gotten the China bid (while Cu miners have grossly under-performed the metal). But the major trend in Gold/Copper is still up.
As for the king of bubble policy recipients, check out Gold/SPX for a look at what I think is an early sign of a deflating bubble.
Gold has impaled the resistance area to its relationship to the Teflon Don, AKA the S&P 500. Due for a pullback? Maybe. You would think so. A contrary setup is in play. But again… NEW MACRO. I view it as a launch. If we do get a phase where stocks get bid and gold gets sold, it would very likely be a buying opportunity (per this chart, maybe around the upper green line) in gold and a selling/shorting one in stocks.
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